The Washington Huskies will play the Alabama Crimson Tide this Saturday in the Peach Bowl. They are currently a sixteen-point underdog. Never in college football history has the point spread been so high in a game with such immediate national championship implications.
As you may have heard, the UW’s coach, Chris Petersen, has some experience with notable upsets. He was the first-year coach at Boise State when the Broncos beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, 43-42, in what’s widely considered the greatest game of the millennium. (It’s worth noting, though, that Boise State only entered that contest as just a seven-and-a-half point dog.)
I thought it would be worthwhile (read: a good excuse to watch more football) to re-watch Boise’s classic upset and see what the Broncos did to the Sooners that the Huskies might be able to replicate against the Tide—to see if there was any sort of blueprint to discover. Here are seventeen things I learned:
1. The underdog needs a fast start
This one is obvious, but that doesn’t make it untrue. Looking back at Boise State-Oklahoma, it’s startling how perfect the first half-hour unfolded for the Broncos. By the 7:30 mark of the first quarter, Boise led 14-0 and had capitalized on big plays (a 49-yard touchdown pass), forced a turnover (on a strip-sack), created consistent pressure on defense, covered kicks to perfection and converted scoring opportunities into touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.
The UW will surely have to follow a similar plan of attack to challenge Alabama. Punch the Tide in the mouth, and all the pregame talk about favorites and underdogs will be forgotten real quick—by the players on the field, at least.
2. Chris Petersen is ten years older now, and he looks it
Don’t know if there’s any real insight to be gleaned here, but holy cow, Petersen looks like a 19-year-old during the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
3. It really helps to have a quarterback who can scramble
Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky was a threat with his feet, escaping pressure to either scramble for a few yards or throw the ball away to avoid a sack. No matter how well the UW offensive line plays, it’s safe to say there will be occasions when Alabama creates some pressure.
Just about every team in recent history to beat Alabama has had a quarterback who could make plays with his feet (Chad Kelly, Trevor Knight, Nick Marshall, Cardale Jones, Johnny Manziel). Jake Browning isn’t a statue, but Husky fans would rest easier if he were just a bit more nimble.
4. The horse collar rule has sure changed!
On one of those scrambles late in the second quarter, Zabransky was veering out of bounds when an Oklahoma defender grabbed his jersey up by the nape of the neck and yanked him straight down. No flag. Joel Klatt would have been screaming bloody murder if that happened during 2016.
5. Big plays, big benefit
In my memory, the 2007 Boise State team is rather devoid of explosive playmakers. But I apparently forgot about Drisan James. The speedy wideout caught three passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns—and that doesn’t count his role as the player who caught the initial pass on the hook-and-ladder heard ‘round the world. His contributions were massive, because as good as Boise State’s offense plays, the Broncos simply didn’t have the horses (sorry) to grind out everything in five-yard chunks.
The same will apply for the UW against ‘Bama. The Huskies won’t be able to count on many ten-play drives, which figures to put the game-breaking ability of John Ross III and Chico McClatcher at a premium. If those two could churn out a couple 50-yard catches-and-runs, it would go a long ways toward keeping the UW in contention.
6. The fans might matter
When Oklahoma had the ball in that 2007 game, the Boise State fans in the stands made their presence felt. They were loud. That’s always an impossible thing to quantify, but it’s one slight edge the UW figures not to have on New Year’s Eve. Alabama will essentially be playing a home game, for whatever that’s worth.
7. Penetration up front is not optional
Boise State didn’t have a defensive line full of future pros—this was pre-Tyrone Crawford and DeMarcus Lawrence—but the Broncos still managed to blow up enough plays in the Oklahoma backfield to keep the Sooners off-schedule on offense. Along with a mobile quarterback, this has been the other non-negotiable trait needed to upend Alabama in recent years: You have to create significant push up front (Nick Fairley in the 2013 Iron Bowl is the clearest example).
And while Browning’s wheels are a question mark, this is one area in which the UW should be able to create some advantages. The defensive line isn’t deep (Joe Mathis’s absence will be acutely felt), but the trio of Vita Vea, Greg Gaines and Elijah Qualls should be able to cause problems for Alabama’s highly pedigreed offensive front. Force the Tide into second-and-thirteens and third-and-nines, and the youth of Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts might start to show.
8. A middle linebacker is important
No matter how penetration the Huskies get against Alabama, though, there are going to be plays when one of the Tide’s backs breaks through the line. On those occasions (and many others), it sure would be nice if the UW had a healthy Azeem Victor. Time and again, Boise State’s all-everything middle linebacker Korey Hall made key tackles in space against the Sooners. Kieshawn Bierria is great, but as one anonymous Pac-12 coach told ESPN, “[Victor’s] the best linebacker in the conference. It’s not close.”
9. Prevent big plays
Another “no-duh” component of the upset checklist, but still a critical one. There were a couple occasions in the Fiesta Bowl when punt returner Reggie Smith or Adrian Peterson was on the verge of finding open field, but a trio of Broncos always managed to corral the Sooners. Visions of ArDarius Stewart sprinting down the sideline or O.J. Howard rumbling down the middle of the field wide open have to be haunting UW defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski’s nightmares.
So if you’re keeping track here, the UW defense just needs to be super aggressive creating negative plays and turnovers while also never allowing Alabama to bust one. Sounds simple enough! /sarcasm
10. You gotta get lucky
As good as Boise State was (and as good as Washington is), Oklahoma simply was (and Alabama simply is) better. An upset will require some luck. For instance: At one point in the second quarter of the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Oklahoma defensive backs let easy interceptions slip through their hands on consecutive possessions. The breaks don’t all have to go the Huskies’ way, but more than fifty percent of them probably do.
11. A defensive touchdown could change the game
Safety Marty Tadman gave the Broncos a 28-10 lead over Oklahoma with a 27-yard interception return for a touchdown midway through the third quarter—exactly the sort of non-offensive touchdown typically highlighted as a necessity for underdogs. But the pick-six gods taketh away, too: Zabransky threw a horrific interception to Marcus Walker with a minute left that nearly cost Boise State the game.
The Huskies rank second in the nation in turnover margin, and simply winning the turnover battle against Alabama would be a major plus. But the more the UW can take advantage of opportunities like this at the margins—scoring on defense or special teams, not committing penalties, etc.—the more room for error they’ll have at the line of scrimmage.
12. Tostitos should always sponsor the Fiesta Bowl
The ill-fated marriage of Tostitos and the Fiesta Bowl was a capitalist love story. Who could forget the sultry voice of Brent Musburger telling us before Wes Byrum’s game winning field goal in the 2011 national title game that “this one’s for all the Tostitos”? Last year’s Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl was a sham and everyone involved should be ashamed. Bring back the tortilla chips.
13. A tight end wearing a number in the 90s might be important
Rocking the No. 91, Boise State tight end Derek Schouman finished the 2007 Fiesta Bowl with eight receptions for 72 yards and what proved to be the game-winning touchdown. Good god, is that Will Dissly’s music?!
14. Oklahoma’s defense wasn’t even close to Alabama’s
This has largely been an optimist’s guide to the Peach Bowl. But let’s get real: the 2006 Sooners might have been a really good ballclub, but the 2016 Crimson Tide are in a whole different league.
By my count, the Oklahoma defense had fewer than five guys who ever played an NFL game and just one—middle linebacker Curtis Lofton—who went on to an extended career. I think to say the current Alabama defense have five future first-round picks would be conservative; it’s possible fifteen (twenty?) members of the Tide D will go on to be NFL draft picks. Now, this year’s Huskies are much more talented than Petersen’s first Boise State team, but it’s tough to oversell the Tide.
It’s entirely possible the UW finds all that talent simply too much to overcome, as thirteen other teams have already done this season.
15. Keep your foot on the gas
In the unlikely event the Huskies do find themselves hanging around with Alabama or—gasp—winning in the second half, they absolutely can’t let up to the degree Boise State did ten years ago. Up 28-10 midway though the third quarter, the Broncos nearly collapsed. Their offense didn’t gain a first down in the whole third period. Running back Ian Johnson fumbled. The defense turned porous. There was Zabransky’s late interception.
In retrospect, it was surprising to watch Oklahoma squander so many chances to win the game. It’s probably safe to assume Alabama will take advantage of those same opportunities, if presented.
16. Trick plays can backfire, too
The hook-and-ladder and the Statue of Liberty are what people remember. One play early in the fourth quarter tends to be forgotten: When Boise State tried a double-pass with wide receiver Vinny Peretta, only for Zabransky to sail his initial backwards pass over the diminutive wideout’s head and out of bounds for a five-yard loss. Everyone’s excited to see what Petersen pulls out of his bag of tricks in the Peach Bowl, but it’s important to remember those plays are risks, not sure things.
17. Play to win
Adrian Peterson’s 25-yard touchdown run on the very first play of overtime made the decision easy: If Boise State scored on its turn in overtime, the Broncos were going for two. Petersen realized his team was not as talented as the Sooners, that the Broncos were playing on borrowed time. So when he had an opportunity to go for the win, he didn’t let it slip away.
The Huskies will have to employ a similar philosophy. Take chances when they present themselves. Take measured risks. Be aware of your own limitations and your opponent’s strengths. And when in doubt, don’t be afraid to try something that nobody’s ever seen before.
If the Huskies pull off the upset of the century against big, bad, ‘Bama, it will certainly be that.