In three cities across the state of Washington this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, a grand total of twelve basketball teams will be crowned state champions. It’s a crazy 72 hours of hoops ahead, with 96 teams in action and well over a hundred games scheduled to be played. It can all be a little much for even the most seasoned rooter to keep track of.
So to set the stage, we’re gonna bust out a three-part preview that breaks down all the boys and girls brackets for all six classifications, analyzing the first-round matchups, highlighting some of the teams and players to watch, and outlining a few key storylines. We’ll kick things off with the Class 2B and Class 1B tournaments, to be played at the Spokane Arena, with Class 2A and 1A to follow on Tuesday and Class 4A and 3A on Wednesday.
Usual disclaimer: I haven’t ever seen the majority of these teams play and don’t claim to be an expert on the ins and outs of the Class 1B scene. Many predictions herein will be wrong. This is supposed to be fun.
I picked all the regional games last week, and for the sake of transparency — i.e., so you lovely readers can know in which instances I’m a total idiot — I included in each section here how those selections did. Overall, I went 72-24, an even .750 percentage. I’ll take it.
CLASS 2B BOYS
The matchups
Morton/White Pass (24-2) vs. Northwest Christian (22-2), 3:45 p.m.
St. George’s (18-9) vs. Brewster (23-0), 5:30 p.m.
Lind-Ritzville/Sprague (18-10) vs. Life Christian (24-2), 7:15 p.m.
Mossyrock (18-7) vs. Friday Harbor (19-5), 9 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
The top half of the bracket is a doozy, including the teams who were ranked first (Brewster), second (MWP), and third (NWC) in the final AP poll of the season. It’s a particularly rough shake for MWP and NWC; either could still win state, but they’ll have to traverse a highly difficult path to do so. On the flip side, things set up pretty nicely for Life Christian and Mossyrock. LCA beat the Vikings 74-72 when the two teams played during the district tournament, so a rematch in the semifinals could be a whole lot of fun.
The favorite
The T-Wolves of MWP are the two-time defending champs, but frontrunner status belongs to unbeaten Brewster. The Bears thumped Adna in the regional round, 80-54, and already have a 61-43 win over MWP to their credit from back in December. Nobody’s come within 25 points of them since Jan. 7. Brewster’s a veteran team with a lot of size (their two leading scorers are 6-foot-7 Josh Hammons and 6-foot-4 Chance Williams, truly impressive for a 2B school), and it’s difficult to see them losing.
The dark horse
If anybody does upend the Bears, though, a pretty good bet is Life Christian, one of the few teams around that can match Brewster in terms of size and length. Was it worrying that the Eagles struggled so mightily to beat Napavine during regionals? You bet. But again, this bracket couldn’t have set up better for LCA. If they do make it to the title game, they could face an opponent still reeling from a rough-and-tumble semifinal
Lessons from regionals
It was a pretty unsurprising weekend for this bunch, allowing me to go 8-0 on my picks from last week. Brewster, MWP, and NWC all won by huge margins and seemed to establish themselves as the three best teams in the classification, but now all three are jammed into very close quarters in the bracket. One thing we did learn is that, when it comes to depth, the Northeast 2B and the Central 2B are the classification’s two best leagues. All three teams from the Northeast advanced (NWC, LRS, St. George’s), and from the Central, both Mossyrock and MWP made it to the final eight while Napavine pushed Life Christian to the brink.
The picks
First: Brewster
Second: Life Christian
Third: Morton/White Pass
Fourth: Northwest Christian
Fifth: Mossyrock
Sixth: Lind-Ritzville/Sprague
CLASS 2B GIRLS
The matchups
Colfax (19-7) vs. Wahkiakum (18-8), 9 a.m.
Napavine (21-3) vs. St. George’s (21-5), 10:30 a.m.
Mabton (21-3) vs. Toutle Lake (22-2), 12:15 p.m.
Adna (19-7) vs. Okanogan (23-0), 2 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
Just like the 2B boys, there’s a pretty clear imbalance in this bracket, with the bottom half looking particularly tough. The Mabton-TL game should be one of the best of the whole tournament, and Okanogan is by every indication a juggernaut. That means Napavine is probably the draw’s biggest beneficiary — although St. George’s certainly won’t be a pushover. Both Colfax and Wahkiakum have to be pretty pleased to end up facing each other, considering some of the other more intimidating alternatives.
The favorite
There’s only one undefeated team in the field, and that team also happens to be the defending state champs. There’s little reason to pick against Okanogan, which is led by junior star Jill Townsend and her 24 points per game. Mabton came within 13 points of Okanogan during the district tournament, but other than that, the Bulldogs have slaughtered every 2B opponent they’ve faced. They also have wins over 2A East Valley, 1A Cashmere, and 1B Colton, the only game Colton has lost in the past four years.
The dark horse
Okanogan is a really, really big favorite, but if anyone can beat them, the pick is probably Toutle Lake. It will be a tough road requiring wins over three highly ranked opponents, but these Ducks are a battle-tested bunch who seem to make long postseason runs in every sport. To win a championship, they’ll need big contributions from all over the roster; most of all, though, they’ll need Sam Woodley to be the best player in the tournament, which she’s certainly capable of being.
Lessons from regionals
Just like on the boys side, no real surprises during regional weekend, and as such I managed to put together another 8-0 week on my picks. Either this classification is more predictable than most, or I am a small-school savant. Probably the former. Anyways, the biggest takeaway from last weekend is that Wahkiakum and Colfax both might be a little (or a lot) better than their records indicate — the Mules and Bulldogs each won by double-digit margins over higher-ranked teams. We also learned that the Central 2B is still the classification’s center of power, as four of the league’s teams (TL, Napavine, Adna, Wahkiakum) will be among the eight playing in Spokane.
The picks
First: Okanogan
Second: Napavine
Third: Toutle Lake
Fourth: Mabton
Fifth: Colfax
Sixth: Wahkiakum
CLASS 1B BOYS
The matchups
Sunnyside Christian (20-5) vs. Garfield-Palouse (20-2), 9 a.m.
Neah Bay (19-3) vs. Taholah (14-9), 10:30 a.m.
Yakama Tribal (12-8) vs. Shorewood Christian (19-3), 12:15 p.m.
Seattle Lutheran (22-1) vs. Almira-Coulee-Hartline (23-0), 2:00 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
Sometimes I think the WIAA gets a bit of a raw deal, that the playoff and seeding systems aren’t as bad as people make them out to be. And then I see No. 1 ACH playing No. 2 Seattle Lutheran in the first round. Why? Why are the two best teams in the state playing in the first round? I don’t have a good answer, because there isn’t a good answer. This is stupid. We’re headed for the best fourth-place finisher in Class 1B tournament history.
The favorite
In a saner world, either Seattle Lutheran or ACH would earn this label. But with neither team all that certain of even getting out of the first round, the overall team to beat instead becomes Garfield-Palouse, which put on a seriously impressive display in regionals with a 44-point win over Wellpinit. Senior guard Matt Holbrook, who’s averaging 23.6 points per game, will be the focal point for the Vikings. But this team can get points from a lot of different sources: They’ve scored 88 or more in three of their past five games.
The dark horse
Maybe I’m pumping up G-P too much, though, because their first-round game isn’t necessarily a given. Sunnyside Christian is coming off a win over defending state champion Lummi during the regional round, and the Knights have some other nice results on their résumé. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them playing either Seattle Lutheran or ACH for a state title on Saturday night.
Lessons from regionals
Lesson one: I severely overestimated Wellpinit. I picked them to upset G-P, and they instead lost 94-50. Oh well. Lesson two: I severely underestimated the tribal schools. I picked both Taholah and Yakama to lose by pretty large margins, but they instead pulled off wins over Evergreen Lutheran and Entiat, respectively. Lesson three: In general, this 1B stuff is hard to predict. I went an even 4-4.
The picks
First: Almira-Coulee-Hartline
Second: Garfield-Palouse
Third: Shorewood Christian
Fourth: Seattle Lutheran
Fifth: Neah Bay
Sixth: Sunnyside Christian
CLASS 1B GIRLS
The matchups
Tulalip Heritage (23-1) vs. Sunnyside Christian (24-0), 3:45 p.m.
Almira-Coulee-Hartline (21-3) vs. Colton (22-1), 5:30 p.m.
Evergreen Lutheran (20-2) vs. Taholah (16-7), 7:15 p.m.
Republic (23-1) vs. Mt. Vernon Christian (18-9), 9 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
Republic should be licking its chops, with a very winnable first-round game followed by what should be a very winnable semifinal. It will be a bit of a stunner if they don’t make the title game. On the other side of the bracket, Sunnyside Christian and Tulalip Heritage will square off despite spending most of the year ranked second and third in the state, respectively. Almira-Coulee-Hartline drew the one team that everyone in the field was really hoping to avoid.
The favorite
Spoiler alert: Colton is gonna win the state title. The Wildcats have done so each of the past seven years, and there’s no reason to think they won’t run it to eight.
The dark horse
That said, a potential semifinal meeting between Colton and undefeated Sunnyside Christian is awfully appetizing. While the Knights haven’t played all that tough of competition in recent weeks, they tested their mettle early in the season and picked up some nice wins over 1A and 2B opponents. They’ll need to play the game of their lives, but if anyone knocks off the champs, the Knights would seem to be the pick.
Lessons from regionals
Just like with the 1B boys, I overlooked the Taholah girls. The Chitwhins knocked off Neah Bay, 48-40, in the only game I got wrong out of a 7-1 slate. In general, District Four performed better than expectations, with Mary M. Knight giving Tulalip Heritage a surprisingly good fight in their respective regional. On the other side of the coin, Evergreen Lutheran may not be quite as good as that very impressive record would indicate: The Eagles barely escaped against a so-so Selkirk team, winning 35-34.
The picks
First: Colton
Second: Republic
Third: Sunnyside Christian
Fourth: Tulalip Heritage
Fifth: Taholah
Sixth: Mt. Vernon Christian