At long last, after a season’s worth of upsets and buzzer beaters, early-morning practices and long, uncomfortable bus rides, the state tournament is here. Beginning Thursday morning at 9 a.m., it all gets decided on the court.
So we’ll get right down to the last of our previews, which began earlier this week with the Class 2B and Class 1B tournaments in Spokane and continued with the Class 2A and 1A tournaments in Yakima. Now, it’s time for Class 4A and Class 3A, home of the finest teams and players in the state. This is the cream of the crop.
CLASS 4A BOYS
The matchups
Curtis (24-3) vs. Central Valley (20-5), 3:45 p.m.
Kentwood (20-6) vs. Issaquah (21-3), 5:30 p.m.
Lewis & Clark (20-6) vs. Federal Way (26-0), 7:15 p.m.
Union (22-2) vs. Gonzaga Prep (23-1), 9 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
These are eight really good teams, so there are no lopsided pairings here. Lewis & Clark drew the definite short stick, though. The Tigers could have made a run under different circumstances, but it would be a pretty huge upset if they knock off Federal Way. The marquee matchup of the opening round will be Gonzaga Prep and Union, two top-five teams that have done a whole lot of winning. Interestingly enough, the Bullpups and Titans have thus far lost a combined two games in Washington all year, and both those losses were to Lewis & Clark. The bottom of the bracket is the tougher half, but the top’s no cakewalk, with Issaquah-Curtis probably the most likely semifinal.
The favorite
This might be the deepest field of talent in any classification on the boys side of things, but its clear that Federal Way is the team to beat. The defending state champs have now won 53 of their past 55 games. San Diego State-bound forward Jalen McDaniels gets most of the headlines, but the Eagles are loaded with impact players, ranging from big man Christian Jones to the sweet-shooting (and lyrically named) Ferron Flavors to defensive menace D’Jimon Jones. That doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable, though. Curtis came within two points of FW on two occasions this year, so one more potential rematch in the state title game sounds awfully enticing.
The dark horse
Strong guard play is a prerequisite for success at state, when the pressure ratchets up and every possession is at a premium. The presence of junior Trevon Ary-Turner to run the show bodes well for Issaquah. Ary-Turner is a Division 1 recruit averaging 19 points and four assists per game, and he teams with fellow guards Jason Crandall and Scott Kellum to give the Eagles a top-flight backcourt. Navigating past Kentwood in round one and potentially Curtis in round two won’t be easy — beating teams from the SPSL 4A never is — but its certainly possible.
Lessons from regionals
The biggest surprise of regionals wasn’t that any particularly teams won or lost, but rather the final score of GP’s win over Wenatchee: Bullpups 34, Panthers 32. Wasn’t the shot clock supposed to get rid of results like that one? Union came out on top in a thriller against Bellarmine Prep, winning 60-57 with a Cameron Cranston three-pointer at the buzzer. Those were the two games I picked incorrectly last week, and considering the combined margin of victory was five points, I don’t feel too bad about it. I guess the moral of the story is that the Gonzaga Prep-Union game Friday night will probably come down to the wire.
The picks
First: Federal Way
Second: Curtis
Third: Issaquah
Fourth: Union
Fifth: Gonzaga Prep
Sixth: Kentwood
CLASS 4A GIRLS
The matchups
Kentlake (21-5) vs. Bothell (23-1), 9 a.m.
Lewis & Clark (18-6) vs. Snohomish (20-3), 10:30 a.m.
Moses Lake (23-0) vs. Central Valley (25-0), 12:15 p.m.
Skyview (20-4) vs. Beamer (23-2), 2 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
And here we are, folks, this year’s winner of Most Ridiculous First Round Matchup. There are only two undefeated teams left in the classification, so why not pair them up in the quarterfinals? It’s a shame that either Moses Lake or Central Valley will be knocked out before the final four, but c’est la vie. The other game in the bottom of the bracket is nothing to shake a stick at, either, with Skyview facing Beamer in a matchup of two teams that are undefeated against other 4A foes. If any team benefited from the draw, it was Bothell, which finds itself pitted against a Kentlake squad that looks pretty beatable. The contest between Lewis & Clark and Snohomish will likely be low-scoring and defensively minded.
The favorite
It really is tough to pick between the Chiefs and Bears, two unbeaten teams who don’t share much (anything) in the way of common opponents. But we’ll go with Central Valley, a team led by breakout sophomore forward Lexie Hull and her 18 points per game. It’s a seriously impressive feat to navigate the rough-and-tumble Greater Spokane League unscathed. The biggest point in Moses Lake’s favor is probably what happened last March, when the Chiefs took fifth at state after losing by five points to Inglemoor and by three points to Beamer. They brought back plenty of talent from last year’s squad, so there’s no question this year’s bunch can compete with the top teams from the west side of the state.
The dark horse
Yes, Lewis & Clark has the worst record of any team in the field. Ignore it. Of the Tigers’ six losses, one was against nationally ranked Archbishop Mitty from San Jose, one was against a South Salem team that features Evina Westbrook, one of the best juniors in the country, and the other four were against Central Valley, all by relatively close margins. They just might get a fifth chance against the Bears in the title game.
Lessons from regionals
Skyview put on a show in its 64-37 beatdown of Bellarmine Prep during regionals, the lone game I missed in a 7-1 week. It’s worth noting that Central Valley and Lewis & Clark both won by more than 20 points, perhaps foreshadowing a strong showing from the GSL in Tacoma. On the flip side, Bothell and Snohomish both won with relative ease, but still struggled more than anticipated with Curtis and Gig Harbor, respectively. The Cougars and Panthers might be more vulnerable than their records indicate.
The picks
First: Lewis & Clark
Second: Central Valley
Third: Skyview
Fourth: Moses Lake
Fifth: Bothell
Sixth: Beamer
CLASS 3A BOYS
The matchups
Bellevue (23-2) vs. Kennedy Catholic (17-9), 9 a.m.
Stanwood (19-6) vs. O’Dea (18-7), 10:30 a.m.
Lincoln (22-4) vs. Rainier Beach (19-4), 12:15 p.m.
Cleveland (22-6) vs. Garfield (24-2), 2 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
It’s too bad Garfield and Rainier Beach are slated to meet in the semifinals rather than the championship game, but this one doesn’t grind my gears quite like some of the other bracketing mishaps because it’s Beach’s own fault. When the Vikings lost to O’Dea during the district quarterfinals, they set themselves up for a more difficult path to the promised land. But that doesn’t mean this bracket isn’t awfully lopsided — I would argue the best four teams in the field are all in the bottom half. That opens the door for Bellevue or O’Dea to sneak into the title game.
The favorite
Gotta go with Garfield, which is pursuing its third straight state title (last year in 3A, the year before that in 4A). Beach beat the Bulldogs in their most recent meeting, during the Metro tournament, but Garfield has been the superior team for the most of the season. Jaylen Nowell is the most gifted scorer I’ve seen this year, and he’s surrounded by a supporting cast that can do it all — shoot, pass, rebound, defend — and do it all exceedingly well. But again, assuming the Bulldogs and Beach both get through the first round, their semifinal on Friday night will be the game of the weekend. The winner of that one will be your state champion.
The dark horse
This would have been a very strange thing to think about writing even three weeks ago, but it looks like O’Dea may be playing for the state title during Jason Kerr’s first year as head coach. If they are, it will be thanks largely to the three-headed backcourt monster of Quin Barnard, Xavier Smith and Michael Carter, three guards all capable both of getting their own shots and creating looks for others. Bellevue is still the best bet to get out of the top half of the bracket — the Wolverines won 65-54 over O’Dea when they played at districts — but don’t overlook the Fighting Irish.
Lessons from regionals
By far the weirdest result from last weekend was Bellevue’s 43-35 victory over Mountlake Terrace, in which the Wolverines struggled mightily with a so-so team from a so-so conference. O’Dea, meanwhile, picked up a 73-61 win over Edmonds-Woodway, which finished well above Mountlake Terrace in Wesco. Those two results are the biggest reasons to be bullish on the Irish. The most impressive performance of regionals came from Garfield, which scored a staggering 118 points in a win over Wilson. That gives you some idea of this team’s nearly unprecedented firepower. I went 6-2 for the week, incorrectly picking Peninsula over Cleveland and Shadle Park over Kennedy Catholic.
The picks
First: Garfield
Second: O’Dea
Third: Rainier Beach
Fourth: Lincoln
Fifth: Bellevue
Sixth: Stanwood
CLASS 3A GIRLS
The matchups
Mt. Spokane (14-10) vs. Bellevue (23-0), 3:45 p.m.
Prairie (21-4) vs. Lynnwood (24-0), 5:30 p.m.
Edmonds-Woodway (16-10) vs. Kamiakin (14-10), 7:15 p.m.
Arlington (23-1) vs. Lincoln (24-1), 9 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
What a mess, for a number of reasons. Bellevue and Lynnwood, the two best teams in the state by a wide margin, are set to play in the semifinals. In the bottom of the bracket, Arlington and Lincoln will battle in the first round — two teams that are a combined 47-1 — to face the winner of Edmonds-Woodway and Kamiakin, two teams with a combined 30-20 mark. Barely better is the first-round matchup between Prairie and Lynnwood, who’ve gone a combined 45-4. The pairing of Mt. Spokane and Bellevue is fair, but the rest of this draw is a disaster in terms of fairly placing teams.
The favorite
This is perhaps the toughest call across all twelve state tournaments: In the most recent national rankings from MaxPreps, Bellevue is No. 13 and Lynnwood checks in at No. 15. But we’re giving the honor to Lynnwood. The Royals are the undefeated state champs, and that deserves a bit of respect. They’re also playing some of their best basketball of the year at the ideal time, entering state off a 59-34 beatdown of West Seattle in the regionals and a 60-22 slaughter of Arlington in the district title game. But we couldn’t really argue against Bellevue in this spot, either, considering the utter dominance the Wolverines have exhibited the past three months. When the two teams meet in the semifinals Friday night, it will be one of the best backcourt matchups in recent state history, pitting Lynnwood’s Division I-bound pair of Mikayla Pivec and Jordyn Edwards against Bellevue’s sharp-shooting duo of Anna Wilson and Quinessa Caylao-Do.
The dark horse
Really tempted to forgo a dark horse for this classification, because I just can’t see a scenario in which someone besides Lynnwood or Bellevue hoists the trophy. But if you were placing a bet on anybody else, Lincoln would be a good choice. Led by forward Tamia Braggs, the Abes have won their past 21 games, including a 55-54 victory over Prairie in districts. They seem like the most likely option to emerge from the bracket’s bottom half, although Arlington could certainly do so, too.
Lessons from regionals
Speaking of those Eagles — I did not see their 49-30 win over Bishop Blanchet in regionals coming. At all. Just one week earlier, Arlington lost to Lynnwood by 38 points. That’s quite the turnaround. Last weekend’s major upset was Edmonds-Woodway picking up a 58-48 win over Auburn Riverside, which had previously been 23-1. (I picked both of those games incorrectly and got the other six correct.) The lesson there would seem to be that Wesco is not to be underestimated, which is part of the reason I’m optimistic about Lynnwood’s chances against mighty Bellevue.
The picks
First: Lynnwood
Second: Arlington
Third: Bellevue
Fourth: Lincoln
Fifth: Edmonds-Woodway
Sixth: Prairie