As of this writing we are less than 24 hours away from the start of Washington state regional basketball action, and so we come at last to the fifth and final stanza of this extensive examination. It’s time to look at Class 4A, the biggest schools in the state, and make our best guesses as to who will qualify for the state tournament March 3 through March 5 in the Tacoma Dome.
Last year’s 4A champs have taken divergent paths. The Federal Way boys are undefeated and top-ranked, back and perhaps better than ever. The Gonzaga Prep girls, meanwhile, are nowhere to be found in the final sixteen, their season already over. Last year’s runner-up on the girls side, Inglemoor, has also already been eliminated, meaning we’re guaranteed two fresh finalists.
At five schools are the boys and girls teams both still kicking: Bellarmine Prep, Central Valley, Curtis, Kamiak, and Lewis & Clark. All five except Kamiak have a decent chance on getting both groups to state, but it would be a major stunner if anyone pulled off the sweep.
And so with our usual pleasantries out of the way, let’s dive in. For those joining the preview party late, here are the previous four parts, covering the other five classifications in the state:
(Note: All rankings are from the Feb. 10 AP poll. All records are the best info I could find.)
CLASS 4A BOYS
Kamiak (17-6) vs. T-No. 2 Curtis (23-3)
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at Rogers High School (Puyallup)
The pick: Curtis, 70-56
The biggest notch in the Knights’ belt is a 65-59 victory over Cascade, the Bruins’ loan loss of the season. Kamiak can play. But Curtis is by most measures one of the two or three favorites to win the state title, and with guard Aushanti Potts-Woods to lead the way, they should make it to the Dome with relative ease.
Timberline (15-8) vs. No. 6 Issaquah (20-3)
Time: 10 a.m. Saturday at Bellevue College
The pick: Issaquah, 68-51
You wonder if the 10 a.m. start time might have a legitimate impact on some of these games — I know it would have been a factor for me when I was seventeen years old. The Eagles should be good enough that it doesn’t matter in this one, though. If it is close at the end, however, the Blazers will feel plenty comfortable; they’ve already played three overtime games this season, going 2-1.
Kentridge (15-11) vs. No. 8 Central Valley (19-5)
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at University High School
The pick: Central Valley, 63-41
I might have picked the Bears for no other reason than their sweet baby-blue uniforms, but the kids wearing those uniforms can play some basketball, too. Between them, Lewis & Clark, and Gonzaga Prep, the Greater Spokane League could be very well represented in the final eight. There’s reason to be bearish on Chargers: They haven’t beat any of the other fifteen teams currently still playing, and they lost by 40 to Federal Way less than a month ago.
No. 7 Bellarmine Prep (20-4) vs. No. 4 Union (21-2)
Time: 8 p.m. Friday at Battle Ground High School
The pick: Bellarmine, 73-70
The Titans are back after last year’s third-place finish and perhaps have even improved, with a string of blowouts trailing in their wake. But Bellarmine has Malachi Flynn, a senior guard averaging 28 points per game and the program’s best player since Avery Bradley and Abdul Gaddy roamed the same backcourt. In a tight game, we’ll give the nod to the team with the most explosive player.
No. 10 Kentwood (19-6) vs. No. 5 Cascade (21-1)
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday at Everett Community College
The pick: Kentwood, 59-52
Another great matchup, this one pitting a team with a lesser record from a much deeper league against one with a nearly spotless mark earned by beating up on a easier competition. An interesting test case. If the more battle-tested Conks indeed pull it off, it will be with their talented backcourt leading the way.
Davis (14-7) vs. No. 9 Lewis & Clark (19-6)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at West Valley High School (Spokane)
The pick: Lewis & Clark, 74-61
I’ll be honest — it took me a while to remember that the Pirates are the defending state runners-up, having beaten Richland and Woodinville at state last season before falling to Federal Way in the title game. But this group hasn’t been quite as impressive (so far, at least), and Lewis & Clark is quietly a force to be reckoned with, boasting wins over Union and Central Valley and a pair of victories against Gonzaga Prep.
T-No. 2 Gonzaga Prep (22-2) vs. Wenatchee (18-4)
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at Eastmont High School
The pick: Wenatchee, 55-52
Speaking of the Bullpups, it appears GP might have a real chance to win state in both football and boys basketball, a feat not easily accomplished. Don’t expect the Panthers to roll over, though. This is a rematch from earlier this season, a game GP won 47-45. Wenatchee is red hot, with seventeen wins in its past eighteen contests, but they’ll still need to play their best to get a victory here.
Woodinville (18-5) vs. No. 1 Federal Way (25-0)
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at Puyallup High School
The pick: Federal Way, 84-74
Tough matchup for star forward Tony Miller and the Falcons, who draw the battle-tested, undefeated defending state champs. This one’s a tall task. The battle down low between Miller and San Diego St.-bound Eagles forward Jalen McDaniels should be a blast, perhaps the best individual matchup of the whole regional round.
AP top 10 teams already eliminated: None
CLASS 4A GIRLS
Kamiak (15-10) vs. No. 9 Kentlake (20-5)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Rogers High School (Puyallup)
The pick: Kentlake, 45-37
The Knights went on quite the run at districts to get here, winning three games in a row after a 21-point loss to Snohomish in round one. But the ride should end here against a balanced Kentlake team that really gets after it on defense.
Curtis (19-7) vs. No. 3 Bothell (22-1)
Time: 8 p.m. Friday at Bellevue College
The pick: Bothell, 68-54
Name of the tournament honors might go to Curtis guard Majesty Claybrooks, but the Vikings will need more than that to get past the Cougars. Bothell has been a bully all season, logging lots of 20-point wins; forward Taya Corosdale could have a big game here to get her team to Yakima for the second straight year. Impressive stuff considering it was just four seasons ago the program went 1-20.
Rogers (Puyallup) (16-11) vs. No. 1 Central Valley (24-0)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at University High School
The pick: Central Valley, 70-59
The Bears have absolutely smoked everyone they’ve played this season except Lewis & Clark. It will be interesting to see how they fare down the line against some of the better teams on the west side of the state, but for this week, they should be able to take care of business. Rogers probably won’t make it easy, though, considering all eleven of its losses have come by eleven points or fewer.
Bellarmine Prep (17-7) vs. No. 7 Skyview (19-4)
Time: 6 p.m. Friday at Battle Ground High School
The pick: Bellarmine, 64-62
Skyview knows all about the SPSL 4A, having escaped against Kentlake by a single point during last year’s regional round. This season’s matchup should be just as close, but might go the other way. Three of Bellarmine’s losses came at a national tournament during December, and the others were all against big-time opponents. The Lions certainly have the talent to make some noise.
Gig Harbor (15-8) vs. No. 10 Snohomish (19-3)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Everett Community College
The pick: Snohomish, 61-43
Believe it or not, the Panthers have won nineteen straight after losing their first three games of the season, all three of which were against Class 3A competition. Gig Harbor, meanwhile, lost its last two by a combined 42 points. Recency bias is always dangerous, but in this case, it seems like a decent representation of the gap between the two groups.
Sunnyside (16-7) vs. No. 5 Lewis & Clark (17-6)
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday at West Valley High School (Spokane)
The pick: Lewis & Clark, 57-44
Just like the Lewis & Clark boys, this group of Tigers has a real chance to win some games in the next two weeks. Neither they or Sunnyside have ventured very far away from home during the regular season, so they don’t share any common opponents. Instead, let’s turn to how they’ve fared against the two teams widely regarded as the state’s best. Sunnyside has lost three times to Moses Lake by eighteen points or more, and while Lewis & Clark is 0-4 against Central Valley, three of those defeats came by five points or fewer.
No. 6 Chiawana (18-3) vs. No. 2 Moses Lake (22-0)
Time: 8 p.m. Friday at Big Bend Community College
The pick: Moses Lake, 65-51
When these two teams met in December, the final score was Moses Lake 76, Chiawana 55. There are plenty of indications that the Riverhawks have improved since then, but it’s tough to give them too much of a chance here. Moses Lake is coming off a state semifinal appearance and looks well on its way to a return trip.
Eastlake (17-7) vs. No. 4 Todd Beamer (22-2)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Puyallup High School
The pick: Beamer, 78-68
Beamer is unbeaten against Class 4A opponents, with its only two defeats coming against Bellevue and Lynnwood each by more than 20 points. That fact should give you some idea of the respective level of talent at the top of 3A and 4A, but it also tells you the Titans should be able to take care of Eastlake. The Wolves have put together a strong campaign, but against top-flight competition like Bothell and Issaquah, they’ve appeared overmatched.
AP top 10 teams already eliminated: No. 8 Camas