I think only three players in the conference can win the Heisman Trophy this year: Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey, Oregon’s Royce Freeman, or UCLA’s Josh Rosen. Other players could and will have fantastic seasons, but for a host of reasons, they won’t really contend for the most prestigious trophy in sports. They might not have the national name recognition to mount a real campaign. They might play a position other than quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. They might play for a team that isn’t any good. Every college football player in the country is theoretically eligible for the Heisman, but in reality the pool of players with any chance to win is relatively tiny.
But it’s no fun to just do a list of three names. So consider this a ranking of the players from the Pac-12 most likely to be Heisman finalists and qualify for a trip to New York—a much larger population than the number of athletes who could actually bring home the trophy.
1. RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford, Junior
Most oddsmakers consider McCaffrey one of the three favorites to win the trophy (for very good reason), along with Clemson QB DeShaun Watson and LSU RB Leonard Fournette, and he figures to have every opportunity to put up jaw-dropping stats on a team that could win ten games or more. The only obvious reason to be bearish is that some voters will surely hold McCaffrey’s season up to his 2015 campaign, and matching those totals will be a difficult task with defenses even more firmly focused on slowing him down.
2. RB Royce Freeman, Oregon, Junior
I’m not sure if people realize quite how dominant Freeman is. He’s already rushed for 3,200 yards on his career, which has him on pace for the third-most in NCAA history, if he for some reason decided to stick around for all four years. The biggest bugaboo for a potential Heisman campaign is Oregon’s muddy quarterback situation. If that doesn’t get sorted out, it could have adverse effects on the offense that trickle down to Freeman’s stats. But if the Ducks keep their eternal combustion offense rolling and Freeman posts 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, he could have a real chance at finishing in the top three in NYC.
3. QB Josh Rosen, UCLA, Sophomore
I’m less optimistic about Rosen’s chances than a lot of experts, mostly because he’s not a threat running the ball. That’s completely fine in terms of helping the Bruins win football games, but it might be a problem for the modern Heisman voter, who has over the past half-decade made a habit of handing the award to dual-threat signal callers who pile up massive amounts of total offense — think Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota. Jameis Winston isn’t a speed demon, but he made some highlight plays on his feet that drew voters’ attention. I’m skeptical Rosen can do the same. That said, as the prospective No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL draft, he’ll certainly draw boatloads of media attention. The spotlight won’t fade if Rosen has one or two bad games in the early going, giving him a second chance not many players receive.
4. QB Luke Falk, Washington State, Junior
A Mike Leach quarterback isn’t going to win the Heisman. The System QB thing is too deeply ingrained with pupils of Mike Leach, I think, even though it’s a specious argument at best. A guy who plays in a system that highlights his skills can still be a really good quarterback! But Falk threw for 4,561 yards last year with a 38-8 TD-INT ration and barely sniffed the conversation, and it’s hard to imagine him posting much better numbers than that. If the Cougars go 10-2 and Falk flirts with 5,500 yards, I could see him making a run, but the numbers will really have to be extraordinary.
5. RB Myles Gaskin, Washington, Sophomore
Gaskin rushed for more than 1,300 yards last year with 14 touchdowns at a healthy 5.7 per-carry clip. With a more experienced line in front of him and what should be a more potent passing game to take the pressure off, there’s a real chance those totals take a leap. He also has the speed for the sort of highlight-reel runs that an off-the-radar runner needs to gain traction in the media. If the more optimistic pundits prove right and Washington wins the Pac-12, and if Gaskin gains something like 1,800 yards on the ground with 15-plus touchdowns, finishing as a Heisman finalist is in the realm of possibility.
6. CB/WR Adoree’ Jackson, USC, Junior
The playbook for Jackson earning a trip to New York: Do his best Charles Woodson impression while the Trojans immediately rally around new coach Clay Helton, upset Alabama in Week 1 and bully their way to a Pac-12 championship. USC’s regular season finale against Notre Dame would provide the perfect platform for Jackson to bust one or two of the game-changing plays that would surely be the highlight of his campaign. It’s not that difficult to imagine, but it is pretty unlikely for all the things needed for Jackson to stay in the Heisman conversation to actually occur. It will need to be the perfect storm.
7. QB Jake Browning, Washington, Sophomore
Browning’s freshman year was a wobbly one at times, but he finished with 2,955 yards and a 16-10 TD-INT ratio. Not a bad starting point, but certainly not the numbers of a Heisman candidate. His placement here is much more predicated on potential. Like Gaskin, he’ll have no chance if the Huskies go 8-4. But if Washington wins 10 games, and if Browning starts to throw a more accurate deep ball, he could put up some big numbers for a top-10 team while running a relatively pro-style offense, which is pretty much always a recipe for Heisman contention. Remember, the guy did throw for 90 touchdowns as a high school senior. He would need to get much, much better from his freshman year, but many of the underlying factors necessary to get in the conversation are here.
8. RB Ronald Jones, USC, Sophomore
Much of the scenario laid out in the Jackson section also applies to Jones here, with the added bonus that he happens to be a USC running back — the position that probably carries more cache with Heisman voters than any other. The much bigger problem is that Jones is likely to split carries with senior Justin Davis. Odds are, neither back will get enough run to put up the requisite numbers (Jones finished with 987 yards last year and Davis with 902, for context). But Jones is more explosive (6.5 yards per carry last year), and thus the more likely option to seize control of the position and gobble up the yards behind a massive offensive line.
9. QB Anu Solomon, Arizona, Junior
This one’s a long shot, largely because the Wildcats might struggle to reach .500. But Solomon is a proven Pac-12 quarterback with the sort of dual-threat bona fides that would be necessary for such a candidate entering the race from out of left field. If Solomon uses his legs more this season in the absence of Jerrard Randall, who rushed for 702 yards last year as a secondary option at quarterback, he could realistically post 4,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns. If the Wildcats shock the world and make a second trip to the Fiesta Bowl in three years, Solomon could sneak into the Heisman conversation.