We’re now getting into the larger classifications in our weeklong lookahead to the Washington state basketball regionals, today predicting all sixteen games that will be played this Friday and Saturday by teams in Class 3A. This is personally exciting because it means I have actually watched a decent chunk of the teams I’m writing about play.
The defending state champions are Garfield on the boys side and Lynnwood on the girls, both of whom have very serious chances to defend their crowns (although Rainier Beach and Bellevue, respectively, could pose stiff challenges). Seven schools — Auburn Mountainview, Bellevue, Edmonds-Woodway, Kamiakin, Lincoln, Rainier Beach, and Wilson — are still alive in both the boys and girls tournaments. Bellevue has the best shot of anyone to sweep, but it would be a serious surprise considering the Wolverines boys fell to Garfield by 30 just last Saturday.
The past three days, we previewed Class 1B, 2B, 1A and 2A, and we’ll wrap things up Thursday evening with Class 4A. A catalog of previous installments:
(Note: All rankings are from the Feb. 10 AP poll. All records are the best info I could find.)
CLASS 3A BOYS
No. 6 Lincoln (21-4) vs. Kamiakin (17-6)
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday at Richland High School
The pick: Lincoln, 65-57
With their four losses coming by a grand total of nine points, the Abes certainly don’t go down easy. Their balanced scoring and hounding defense may be a tough combination for the Braves to handle. Kamiakin won’t be overmatched, but all the evidence points to Lincoln being a superior team.
T-No. 8 Wilson (18-6) vs. No. 1 Garfield (23-2)
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at Bellevue College
The pick: Garfield, 84-62
It’d be easy to pity the Rams for drawing the nationally ranked Bulldogs, but this is the sort of matchup they brought into play by losing their final two games at districts. It should be fun watching Wilson guard David Jenkins do his thing on offense, but Garfield should roll in this battle of presidential high schools. (For what it’s worth, I would also take James Garfield over Woodrow Wilson in a fight, no questions asked.)
Stanwood (18-6) vs. Enumclaw (13-11)
Time: Noon Saturday at Rogers High School (Puyallup)
The pick: Stanwood, 70-58
The Hornets stick out like a sore thumb in an otherwise loaded field of sixteen. They posted a losing league record en route to a fifth-place finish in the SPSL 3A, but pulled off a huge upset over Peninsula at districts to get to this point. Maybe they have some more tricks up there sleeve, but color me skeptical.
O’Dea (17-7) vs. No. 7 Edmonds-Woodway (21-2)
Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at Mountlake Terrace High School
The pick: O’Dea, 66-61
This matchup between a team that was dominant in the relatively weak Wesco and a good-but-not-great member of the extremely deep Metro League is perhaps the weekend’s most fascinating. Woodway could certainly pull it off, but it’s hard to pick against a team that beat mighty Rainier Beach just last week.
Mountlake Terrace (16-7) vs. No. 2 Bellevue (22-2)
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday at Bellevue College
The pick: Bellevue, 81-55
The Wolverines were undefeated against competition from Washington until losing by 30 to Garfield in the district title game. They should bounce back in style here against an overmatched Hawks outfit.
No. 3 Rainier Beach (18-4) vs. No. 4 Auburn Mountainview (23-1)
Time: 8 p.m. Friday at Rogers High School (Puyallup)
The pick: Rainier Beach, 84-73
You have to feel for AMV, which took care of business by winning its district title but still drew a jaw-droppingly talented opponent thanks to Rainier Beach falling all the way to fifth in its own district tournament. The Vikings have been in a minor malaise after topping Garfield in a much-hyped regular season matchup, going 4-3 in the seven games since. This one won’t be easy, but Beach is the more talented team; if the Vikings are motivated (and they certainly should be), they’ll win.
T-No. 8 Cleveland (21-6) vs. No. 5 Peninsula (21-3)
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday at Mt. Tahoma High School
The pick: Peninsula, 68-67
This is another one that should be played at an extremely high leel, with the defensive-minded Eagles doing their best to slow down Peninsula star JaQuori McLaughlin. Of the four teams from Metro still kicking, Cleveland seems the most likely to go down this weekend.
Kennedy Catholic (16-9) vs. No. 10 Shadle Park (16-6)
Time: 4 p.m. Saturday at University High School
The pick: Shadle Park, 54-48
It’s an injustice that one of these teams will move on to state while two of Cleveland, Peninsula, Beach and AMV will go home. But the WIAA is a fickle beast. Shadle Park hasn’t played a single game against an opponent from west of the mountains, so this one is a little tough to judge. Maybe the Highlanders will benefit from a little home-court advantage.
AP top 10 teams already eliminated: None
CLASS 3A GIRLS
Auburn Mountainview (19-5) vs. Mt. Spokane (13-10)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Ellensburg High School
The pick: Mt. Spokane, 66-62
The Wildcats are the latest team that’s likely much better than its record, having played many of their games against 4A competition in the Greater Spokane League. AMV has been good, but without any wins of much significance to the Lions’ credit, it’s easy to see Mt. Spokane pulling a minor upset.
No. 10 Wilson (18-6) vs. No. 2 Bellevue (22-0)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Bellevue College
The pick: Bellevue, 81-58
Man, it’s a tough week to be a Ram. Like the Wilson boys, the girls find themselves facing a complete juggernaut in the first round, meaning a state-worthy team will in all likelihood see its season end one week short. Between its size, skill and depth, Bellevue has an embarrassment of riches.
Edmonds-Woodway (15-10) vs. No. 5 Auburn Riverside (23-1)
Time: 6 p.m. Friday at Puyallup High School
The pick: Auburn Riverside, 53-37
The Ravens were unbeaten until a 50-33 loss to Lincoln in the district title game, with their previous 13 victories all coming by double digits. It would be a major surprise if they fell to a team with the seventh best record in Wesco 3A.
No. 4 West Seattle (22-3) vs. No. 1 Lynnwood (23-0)
Time: 2 p.m. Saturday at Mountlake Terrace High School
The pick: Lynnwood, 51-49
What a shame it is that two of the three best teams in the classification are meeting in the round of sixteen. Fans at the state tournament will miss out on the chance to watch either Lynnwood’s Mikayla Pivec or West Seattle’s Lydia Giomi; more importantly, one seriously talented team will miss out on an experience they would remember the rest of their lives. But this is the system we have, and it’s hard to imagine Lynnwood losing one week after beating previously undefeated Arlington by 38 points.
No. 3 Arlington (22-1) vs. T-No. 6 Bishop Blanchet (23-2)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Mountlake Terrace High School
The pick: Blanchet, 64-50
It’s pretty difficult to see Arlington’s stunning 60-22 loss to Lynnwood and not be concerned. The Eagles had a great regular season, but they only beat one other team that’s still alive at this point, and that was Edmonds-Woodway — not exactly a state-title contender. Blanchet, meanwhile, is as battle-tested as they come. Guard Taylor Chambers should lead the way.
Rainier Beach (16-6) vs. T-No. 6 Lincoln (23-1)
Time: 6 p.m. Friday at Rogers High School (Puyallup)
The pick: Lincoln, 48-37
Tamia Braggs and the Abes have won 20 games in a row, including a 56-55 nailbiter over Prairie in the bi-district title game. Rainier Beach guard Saniah Simpson-Patu gets buckets, but it might not be enough against one of the state’s hottest teams.
No. 8 Mercer Island (20-5) vs. No. 9 Prairie (20-4)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Battle Ground High School
The pick: Prairie, 59-54
A really fun matchup here. It’s easy to forget about Prairie, tucked away in the state’s southwest corner, but the Falcons are always dangerous, and this season is no exception — only one of their losses came against 3A competition, the aforementioned one-point defeat to Lincoln. Mercer Island is no slouch either, going 20-2 against schools not named Bellevue. This could go either way; if Prairie pulls it off, Cherita Daugherty will be the likely reason why.
Columbia River (14-11) vs. Kamiakin (13-10)
Time: 6 p.m. Saturday at Sunnyside High School
The pick: Kamiakin, 42-33
The fact that we have this matchup lined up while West Seattle and Lynnwood are squaring off makes my head hurt. Neither has been any great shakes this year, but one will make the final eight. We’ll show the middle of the state some love.
AP top 10 teams already eliminated: None