We’re back with a plan of attack for our second state tourney preview, heading now to Yakima — the Palm Springs of Washington — where the venerable old SunDome will play host to the Class 2A and Class 1A brackets.
While there are fairly clear favorites in 1A for both the boys and girls, 2A is as wide open as any classification in the state. For both genders, there are four or five different teams that have a real chance to bring home the largest piece of hardware.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. More on that to come.
If you missed Monday’s preview of the Class 2B and 1B tournaments, it can be found here. Check back on Wednesday for part three, taking a look at the big school action in the Tacoma Dome.
CLASS 2A BOYS
The matchups
Clarkston (23-1) vs. Woodland (17-8), 3:45 p.m.
Lynden (23-2) vs. Wapato (19-4), 5:30 p.m.
River Ridge (22-2) vs. Shorecrest (16-8), 7:15 p.m.
Ellensburg (14-10) vs. Tumwater (17-6), 9 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
It’s refreshing to see what are on paper probably the four best teams in the tournament — Clarkston, Lynden, River Ridge, and Tumwater — all playing in different first-round matchups. Bravo, WIAA. The most intriguing of those Thursday games is River Ridge-Shorecrest. The Scots have a ho-hum record, but wins over Lynden and Squalicum during the bi-district tournament prove they can play with anybody in the classification, including the top-ranked Hawks. And some unfortunate luck for Woodland, which has put together quite the run to get to this point but now will have to face the defending state champions in the quarterfinals.
The favorite
Trying to measure Clarkston against Lynden, River Ridge and the other teams from the west side of the state is nearly impossible. The Bantams play totally different competition, including a decent chunk of their schedule against opponents from Idaho. But as the defending state champs and the owners of a 23-1 record, it’s difficult to bestow frontrunner status upon anyone else. Clarkston Trevon Allen, who will play at Idaho next season, might be the best player in the bracket, too, which is a good starting point.
The dark horse
Of these eight teams, Shorecrest has had the most impressive past month, and it’s not even close. Back on Feb. 2, the Scots lost by just five points to Mountlake Terrace; the Hawks nearly toppled Bellevue in their Class 3A regional last weekend. Then in districts, Shorecrest topped Lynden by 19 points and Squalicum by six points — two top-four opponents — en route to a district title. If the Scots can pull a minor upset against River Ridge in the first round, a berth in the title game will suddenly look more likely than not.
Lessons from regionals
The 2A schools that play in mostly 3A conferences — Shorecrest, Liberty, Lindbergh — all put up impressive battles last weekend. The Scots beat Steilacoom, Liberty came within six points of besting Lynden, and Lindbergh fell to Wapato by just two points. All in all, it lesson may have been to not read too much into team records. Woodland (17-8) and Ellensburg (14-10) toppled North Kitsap (20-5) and Mark Morris (19-5), respectively, despite inferior regular seasons. Those upsets contributed to a 4-4 record by yours truly on regional selections.
The picks
First: Clarkston
Second: Shorecrest
Third: Lynden
Fourth: River Ridge
Fifth: Tumwater
Sixth: Woodland
CLASS 2A GIRLS
The matchups
Shorecrest (15-10) vs. Washougal (19-6), 9 a.m.
East Valley (Spokane) (21-3) vs. Anacortes (17-7), 10:30 a.m.
Mark Morris (16-8) vs. Ellensburg (21-2), 12:15 p.m.
Lynden (21-3) vs. Black Hills (21-3), 2 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
Again, this is a pretty balanced bracket — a perfect world might swap either Lynden or Black Hills out with one of Shorecrest and Washougal, but hey, we’ll take it. That 2 p.m. tip between the Lions and Wolves should be the premier game of the first round, although Shorecrest vs. Washougal also has the potential for some real craziness. East Valley probably received the most beneficial draw of any of the top contenders, but that seems fair enough for a squad that spent much of the year ranked first in the state. Ellensburg is probably eagerly awaiting the chance for some payback against Mark Morris after getting run off the floor by the Monarchs in recent state trips.
The favorite
Reasonable minds could go any of three or four different directions here, but East Valley seems as good an option as any. As mentioned above, they were No. 1 in the regular season’s final AP poll, and none of the other teams still playing have beaten the Knights. But Black Hills, Ellensburg, and Lynden could all make a strong case as well. Black Hills is particularly intriguing after eking out a 52-46 regional triumph over Clarkston, one of the few teams to get the best of East Valley during the regular season.
The dark horse
What the heck — let’s put Black Hills in this spot, even though the Wolves might be too good to be considered a true dark horse. Still undefeated against fellow Class 2A opponents, Black Hills rolled to a perfect record in the tough EvCo 2A and then blitzed the rest of Southwest Washington in an easy District Four tournament win. For a bit of a darker horse, consider Shorecrest, which has the talent to make some noise despite a double-digit loss total
Lessons from regionals
The common theme in both my incorrect selections from a 6-2 week was underestimating Southwest Washington. I picked Washougal to lose to White River and Black Hills to fall to Clarkston, but the Panthers and Wolves both made me look foolish. Another takeaway from last weekend is that the Northwest League looks as strong as ever, with Lynden topping Liberty by nearly thirty points and Anacortes stomping Port Angeles. Either of those teams (or both) could make the title game without much of a shock.
The picks
First: Lynden
Second: East Valley
Third: Shorecrest
Fourth: Black Hills
Fifth: Ellensburg
Sixth: Anacortes
CLASS 1A BOYS
The matchups
Kalama (15-8) vs. Cashmere (18-5), 9 a.m.
Freeman (20-3) vs. Hoquiam (20-4), 10:30 a.m.
King’s (21-3) vs. Zillah (23-1), 12:15 p.m.
Medical Lake (19-7) vs. King’s Way Christian (19-2), 2 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
It’s an interesting choice to play the 1A boys state title game at 12:15 p.m. on a Thursday, but I guess that’s the direction in which the WIAA decided to go. None of this stuff obviously matters in the big picture as much as, say, the Syrian refugee crisis, but in the scope of high school sports, King’s playing Zillah in the first round is an out-and-out travesty — particularly for Zillah, which had to beat Lynden Christian in the regional round just to get here and now has to face the state’s other top team in the quarterfinals. It’s true that the Leopards would have had to beat both teams at some point anyways to win the state title, but it makes a mockery of the process to have such games happen so early on.
The favorite
While it’s true that King’s had to replace the majority of last year’s state champions, they brought back guards Corey Kispert and Koa Wilkins, which is a great place to start. Guard Cole Mitchell has been a revelation as a third option, combining the athleticism to get to the basket and dunk on some fools with a nice jumper and really hard-nosed defense. And the rest of the roster is loaded with role players, including the sort of size that’s necessary for any team that hopes to beat Zillah. The Leopards and the Knights are clearly the top two teams in this tournament, but the presence of Kispert puts King’s in the driver’s seat.
The dark horse
It would be an insult to call Zillah a dark horse — the Leopards are more like No. 1A to the Knights’ No. 1 on the list of favorites. A true under-the-radar contender might be Kalama. Sure, the Chinooks have the worst record of any team in the field, but they’ve been red-hot of late, beating Hoquiam in the district tournament, topping Seattle Academy at regionals, and falling by just four to King’s Way Christian in their district title game. Could Kalama lose to Cashmere in the first round? Absolutely. But somebody from that relatively weak top half of the bracket is going to make the state title game, and the Chinooks might have as good a shot as anybody.
Lessons from regionals
It’s possible King’s isn’t as superhuman as the Knights looked three weeks ago when they beat Lynden Christian — a 51-41 regional win over Vashon Island wasn’t all that impressive. Hoquiam and Kalama both represented well for Southwest Washington in games that could have gone either way, against Seattle Christian and Seattle Academy, respectively. I guess there’s also a chance the 1A schools in Seattle just aren’t all that good. And we learned that Zillah is definitely the real deal, as the Leopards earned a 60-49 win over defending runner-up Lynden Christian. I went 4-4 on picks here, continuing a rough go of it on boys games.
The picks
First: King’s
Second: Freeman
Third: King’s Way Christian
Fourth: Zillah
Fifth: Kalama
Sixth: Medical Lake
CLASS 1A GIRLS
The matchups
King’s (19-5) vs. Columbia (19-5), 3:45 p.m.
Zillah (18-5) vs. Nooksack Valley (19-9), 5:30 p.m.
Kalama (19-5) vs. Granger (21-3), 7:15 p.m.
Lynden Christian (22-2) vs. Cashmere (15-7), 9 p.m.
Thoughts on the draw
Four matchups here that are each intriguing in their own way. King’s is the defending champ, but the Knights have looked very beatable in recent weeks, and Columbia is coming in off an impressive upset win over Lakeside. Zillah might have a better record than Nooksack Valley, but the Pioneers have played a lot of games against really good teams — a chunk of those losses are to 2A schools. Kalama and Granger share no common opponents, which makes handicapping a bit difficult; their showdown could also go either way. And while Lynden Christian vs. Cashmere may look like a walkover for the Lyncs, the Bulldogs are finally healthy after battling injuries much of the season and have won five straight. Considering so many of these teams have pretty similar profiles, we were bound to have an evenly distributed bracket. I don’t think anyone can have any real complaints here.
The favorite
Tough to go with anyone other than Lynden Christian, especially considering the Lyncs picked up a 53-46 win over fellow top contender King’s on Feb. 13. Between the size of Kara Bajema and Sam Van Loo inside and the skill of guard Haley Hollander on the perimeter, LC has a lot of ways to beat you. But the size really is the biggest factor (pun intended). With multiple skilled 6-footers, there are a lot of teams in the classification who simply can’t keep up with the onslaught. Some of the ones who can, though, are in this tournament. Four or five different teams have a real shot at first place.
The dark horse
The top portion of the bracket sets up slightly easier than the bottom; would it really be so weird for Nooksack Valley to mount a run? A 47-39 win over La Center during last week’s regionals was a signal to the rest of the state that the Pioneers aren’t to be taken lightly. They’ve got decent size and have already played a ton of good teams this year, including Lynden Christian three times and Lynden, Anacortes and Burlington-Edison each once. King’s still has the best chance of any team in the upper half of the bracket to make the title game, but if the Knights continue to look as vulnerable as they have in recent weeks, Nooksack Valley may be able to take advantage.
Lessons from regionals
The center of the state put on an impressive showing, with Zillah, Columbia, Granger and Cashmere all earning wins. It’s even possible — although highly improbable — all four could make the semifinals, which would probably lead to some killer crowds in Yakima. As for the rest of the state, forward Anna Parker and her King’s team definitely raised some eyebrows in a 34-30 escape against Bellevue Christian, and Kalama continued to hitch its wagon to the interior tandem of Parker Esary and Kaelyn Shipley, as the two combined for 42 points in a 55-43 win over Seattle Academy. On a personal note, my lack of faith in Nooksack Valley and Columbia resulted in a 6-2 mark on predictions.
The picks
First: Lynden Christian
Second: King’s
Third: Granger
Fourth: Kalama
Fifth: Nooksack Valley
Sixth: Zillah