One of the best parts of my time at a wonderful little newspaper called The Daily was writing these rankings every week. One of the worst parts was that I had to keep them to 550 words. A guy can only be so pithy! So I’m planning on bringing it back this year in (hopefully only slightly) elongated form. Rankings are based on who I think would win on a neutral field in a game played tomorrow. Check back next week to see how the first weekend’s worth of results impact the order.
1. Stanford
It’s still strange to see a Stanford roster studded with five-star recruits, but such is the monster that Jim Harbaugh constructed and David Shaw has continued. Quarterback Kevin Hogan graduates? Here’s All-American recruit Keller Chryst to take his place. Blake Martinez and Aziz Shittu move on from the defensive front seven? A new crop of studs are there to step in. And did we mention Christian McCaffrey? With road games against UCLA, Washington and Oregon, the schedule does the Cardinal absolutely zero favors. On paper, though, this is the conference’s most talented team.
2. Oregon
One little epic collapse in the Alamo Bowl (oh, was it ever sweet), and suddenly a wide swathe of the college football punditry seems ready to write off the Ducks. Do so at your own peril. Sure, the quarterback position is a total question mark, and no, new coordinator Brady Hoke doesn’t seem like the answer to the very real problems on defense. But this is still Oregon. This is still a team that scored 60 points on three separate occasions last year, with Royce Freeman and Taj Griffin in place to run the ball and Dwayne Stanford, Darren Carrington, and the rest of a crazy-talented stable of receivers ready to catch it. Looking at the schedule, the Ducks might be favored in every game they play.
3. Washington
Extended preseason thoughts on the UW are coming in a column later this week. Suffice it to say for now that while there’s no guarantee the Huskies live up to their considerable preseason hype, the talent necessary to do so is certainly on hand. The defense should be able to stop anyone. Inexperience on offense is the only reason they’re not higher on this list.
4. UCLA
After starting off with three straight teams from the Pac-12 North, finally, we delve into the South. And this may be severely underselling UCLA. The Bruins return nine starters on defense, and the only two fresh faces — defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes and linebacker Mique Juarez — were top-ten national recruits. On the other side of the ball, UCLA has a Heisman candidate (Josh Rosen) at quarterback, a future first-round pick (Conor McDermott) at left tackle, and a host of high-school All-Americans at the skill positions. Then again, coach Jim Mora Jr. had similar talent last season and went 8-5. Hence, this ranking.
5. USC
In August, Fox Sports 1 hired Steve Sarkisian as an in-booth analyst. I would chip in at least $50 to get Sark to call the USC-UW game on November 12. As always, his former team in Los Angeles is chock full of potential All-Americans. The Trojans’ talent is downright ridiculous, just like UCLA’s. But just like the Bruins, USC has a recent history of doing less with more. The Trojans should be able to win eight games just by handing the ball off to Justin Davis and Ronald Jones and letting them run wild behind a massive, veteran offensive line. If Max Browne gets comfortable quickly at quarterback and the Trojans start off strong against what is a terribly difficult schedule, they could be a major factor in the conference championship race.
6. Utah
The Utes are the opposite of their two primary rivals in the South division, always seeming to outplay their talent level. In fact, the two players on the Utah roster who were the most highly recruited out of high school — quarterback Troy Williams and defensive end Kylie Fitts — both transferred from other Pac-12 schools (the UW and UCLA, respectively). It will be tougher this year than most for coach Kyle Whittingham, with just thirteen returning starters. Despite that and other signs for concern, though, it’s tough to count Utah out of the South picture.
7. Arizona State
The Sun Devils were the Washington of last offseason, a media darling ranked in the preseason top fifteen despite lacking a recent pedigree of high-end success. They finished 6-7. That’s a warning sign to the Huskies that hype does not equal results, but it’s also the reminder of a wasted opportunity for ASU. With just ten starters back from last year’s team, it seems clear a changing of the guard is underway. That begins at quarterback with Manny Wilkins, and it continues with an almost entirely new offensive line. If the Sun Devils do end up contending for a division title, which is still totally possible in the wide-open South, it will likely start with the defense, led by up-and-coming stars like end JoJo Wicker and cornerback Kareem Orr.
8. Washington State
I swear this ranking is only like ten percent trolling. Yes, the Cougars went 9-4 last year and would have reached ten wins if not for a loss to FCS opponent Portland State in the opener. Yes, Luke Falk is back at quarterback to lead a veteran offense, and yes, Mike Leach finally has a roster of his own players in place in Pullman. But color me skeptical. With games against Boise State, Oregon, Stanford and UCLA in the first half of the year, it’s quite easy to see WSU starting off 2-4 with a road trip to Arizona State looming. There’s a scenario where the Cougars get over the hump and reach double-digit wins this season, but I think it’s more likely they tumble back to Earth with a record right around .500.
9. Arizona
Was it really just two seasons ago the Wildcats were playing for a Pac-12 title? Some of the key faces from that team are still around, including quarterback Anu Solomon and receiver Samajie Grant, but the Wildcats program took a distinct step backward last season. Still, it’s not outrageous to imagine Arizona making another run at ten wins. Any of the first nine teams on this list could qualify for the Pac-12 championship without dropping the jaws of too many observers. The last three, well … not so much.
10. Colorado
The Buffaloes have to get better at some point, right? It’s now been nearly a decade since a bowl game and more than five years since Colorado won more than four contests. But with 18 starters back from last year’s 4-9 squad, there’s finally some cause for optimism. With all four starters back in the secondary, plus the return of quarterback Sefa Liufau and top target Shay Fields, the Buffaloes should be able to hang with some teams in shootouts.
11. California (1-0)
The Golden Bears flashed potential in a 51-31 win over Hawaii in last Friday’s opener, as new quarterback Davis Webb (a Texas Tech transfer) passed for 441 yards and receiver Chad Hansen caught 14 balls for 160 yards and two scores. The flip side, though, is that Cal allowed 31 points to the Warriors, who figure to be among the nation’s worst teams. Serious inexperience in the back seven and at the wideout position are causes for concern, but Week 1 shows that Cal could easily go bowling for the second straight year.
12. Oregon State
Wither art thou, T.J. Houshmandzadeh? The Beavs went winless in Pac-12 play last year, and breaking in a new quarterback and a new running back — as they are in 2016 — isn’t the route to rapid improvement. Things may get worse in Corvallis before they get better. One possible bright spot: A talented group of wideouts led by Victor Bolden and Jordan Villamin. Wide receiver is also the new position of Seth Collins, last year’s breakout star at quarterback who has returned to the Beavers after briefly transferring to Northern Illinois amid a highly hectic offseason.