After being picked to finish eleventh in the Pac-12 by media members during the preseason, the Washington men’s basketball team is currently in sole possession of first place at 5-1. The more pertinent question is probably if the Huskies will make the NCAA tournament, but when to dream big if not now?
The absence of a dominant team in the Pac-12 makes it look a lot more possible. Arizona was the media’s preseason pick to win a third straight conference title, with California and Utah in close pursuit. But all three frontrunners have shown holes to date. An injury to Allonzo Trier (formerly of Federal Way) leaves the Wildcats without a perimeter scoring threat capable of creating his own shot (not a huge Gabe York fan). Cal’s best player, senior Tyrone “Smoochie” Wallace, is out four to six weeks with a broken hand, and the Golden Bears are off to a mediocre 3-3 start in conference play. Utah lost three of its first four Pac-12 games. These aren’t insurmountable obstacles, but the point is that the door looks much more open than it did in November.
First, who exactly are the 2015-16 Washington Huskies? The statistics paint a clear picture. They play at a breakneck pace, forcing lots of turnovers and scoring lots of points. They take good care of the ball, but they don’t make very many shots. They crash the offensive glass like crazy and allow other teams to do the same. And they block an unholy amount of shots, more than any other team in the country.
Some numbers to back that all up, for those who are interested in such things: The Huskies play at the fastest tempo in the conference, according to KenPom.com, averaging 78 possessions per 40 minutes. Their 7.9 steals per game and plus-2.1 turnover margin both rank second in the league. UW’s 85.2 points per game are tops in the conference, but the Huskies’ 42.2 percent field-goal percentage is the league’s worst. They have the best offensive rebounding rate in the Pac, at 37.4 percent, and the worst defensive rate, at 63.2 percent.
All in all, it’s a team of statistical extremes, and one that’s certainly built to fit both Lorenzo Romar’s stylistic preferences and his young players’ natural abilities.
That’s me spinning the superficial numbers in a relatively rosy light. A deeper examination reveals that the Huskies have actually been one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 to date. KenPom’s numbers have them ranked eleventh in Pythagorean rating, designed to be a relatively complete measure of performance. They rank ninth in adjusted offense and tenth in adjusted defense. So how are they 13-5 overall and 5-1 against conference competition? Well, the UW is first in the league in KenPom’s luck rating — a number that measures a team’s actual results against its expected results based on the underlying numbers and isn’t exactly considered sustainable. In total, not so pretty a picture.
The fact of the matter is that the Huskies will have to become more efficient in order to keep this winning up. Luckily, few teams seem better sculpted for rapid improvement. As every single UW broadcast deems it necessary to inform us, this is the fifth-youngest team in the nation, with a freshmen class that accounts for 52.8 percent of the team’s scoring, more than any other group of newcomers in the country. Dejounte Murray is averaging 19.6 points in his past five games and seems increasingly comfortable at the controls of the offense, taking some of the pressure off Andrew Andrews. On a subjective basis, Matisse Thybulle and Dominic Green both look to be growing much more comfortable on the wing, and capable 3-point shooters are something the UW really needs. One has to think Marquese Chriss, Noah Dickerson and Malik Dime (not a freshmen, but still) are learning some things about how to play against Pac-12 big men — if nothing else, they’ve gained plenty of experience playing with foul trouble.
Then there’s Andrews, clearly the team’s most important player and the current frontrunner for Pac-12 player of the year. It goes without saying that he needs to keep up a reasonable facsimile (is hologram a better metaphor these days?) of his current production if the Huskies are going to remain atop the league standings.
The amount of obvious talent on hand, the potential for rapid improvement, the go-go style of play, the reliance on local kids, their apparent close-knit nature, and the knack for late-game theatrics are all reasons this team has been repeatedly compared to the famous 2003-04 group that springboarded the most enjoyable era in program history.
But even that team only finished 12-6 in league play, second in the standings behind Stanford. Getting down the nuts and bolts of the original question, the Pac-12/Pac-10 champion has won at least 13 games every year in the past ten, and at least 14 games eight of those years. That means the Huskies likely need to finish 8-4, at minimum, to have a shot. The schedule will get more difficult. Six road games remain, and the Huskies have already made the two easiest visits in the conference (against Arizona State and Washington State). Trips to Los Angeles and the mountain schools look particularly difficult — escaping either one with a split would be a good result.
Logically, the UW has a difficult road ahead. But the argument for the Huskies as a legit contender in the conference isn’t exactly based in logic. It’s based on Andrews continuing to be the league’s best player. It’s based on the freshmen improving and the team’s efficiency rising as a result. It’s based on the fact that those five wins are already banked. It’s based on how exciting the Huskies are watch, how obvious the talent is, and the hope that maybe, just maybe, this can be the sort of team that makes those thousands of hours of watching sports all worthwhile.
Can the Huskies win the Pac-12? Probably not, but it’s sure going to be fun to watch them try.